Friday, September 14, 2012

Will the Ground Game Steal the Show?


Coming off one of the best performances of his life, it'd be be easy to assume that Tony Romo will be the center of attention again this Sunday against the Seahawks.  Meanwhile, Russell Wilson will surely be looking to improve upon his debut performance against the Cardinals.  Which, while not terrible, didn't go exactly as planned.  However, I'm thinkin that this Sunday won't come down to the battle of the two quarterbacks.  No, instead I think that whichever team establishes greater success on the ground will ultimately walk out victorious.

As you know, these two teams met last season in Week 9 in Dallas.  The 'Hawks, who up until that point had one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, were finally able to grasp the concepts of Tom Cable's Zone Blocking Scheme and turn them in to results.  Marshawn Lynch had the best game of his career (to this point) as a Seahawk rushing for 135 yards on 23 carries (5.9 YPC) and a touchdown.  Unfortunately for the 'Hawks, DeMarco Murray ran just as well for the Cowboys in a game the 'Hawks would go on to lose 23-13.  Murray rushed for 139 yards on 22 carries.  While he didn't reach paydirt, Murray was largely effective.  Interestingly enough, 11 of his 22 carries were outside of the tackles.  The Cowboys clearly made it a point to exploit the Seahawks lack of speed at the linebacker position, and it worked.

As the two teams head in to their rematch at Century Link Field on Sunday it will be interesting to see the chess match between Seahawks Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley and Cowboys Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan.  While Ryan's gameplan received stellar reviews around the league with it's ability to limit the defending Super Bowl champs, Bradley received sparse criticism for his reluctance to pressure Kevin Kolb after John Skelton left the game due to injury.  Many also pointed to the Seahawks continued inability to shut down the flats and the middle of the field as further proof that Bradley didn't quite bring his A game.  Regardless, the Seahawks defense played a stout second half and I came away impressed with Bradley's halftime adjustments.  If the 'Hawks offense punches the ball into the endzone on that final drive, few would be wringing their hands over Bradley's performance.

Both coordinators will have last season's matchup fresh on their memory during the leadup to this game.  Ryan, known for his heavy overload blitz packages, will want to limit the Seahawks ability to create time in the pocket for Russell Wilson.  The rookie faced a ton of pressure last week and while he handled the pressure admirably and did his best to not get killed a few times, the Seahawks offense was largely ineffective and that's the name of the game.  It'll be up to Seahawks Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell to alleviate this pressure by designing rollouts to take advantage of a potentially over aggressive Cowboys defense, as well as quick screens to Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin and draw plays with Lynch, Robert Turbin, and Leon Washington.  Speaking of Washington, I sincerely hope that he's more a part of the gameplan this weekend.  He can be a great weapon for the 'Hawks on Sunday, and not just in the return game.  Washington is the Seahawks best running back in space and has solid hands.  With DeMarcus Ware and Co. hell-bent on bringing pressure, a guy like Leon Washington could be the surprise MVP of this game.  I'm not too confident about this bold prediction though, as the 'Hawks hardly seem to use Washington much on offense.  I've always felt that he could provide a huge impact if utilized properly.  Instead, assuming he's healthy, we'll probably see Golden Tate used in the role I'm envisioning for Washington.  Not a bad consolation prize at all, really.

On defense, Gus Bradley needs to mix things up to confuse Romo.  While the New York Giants have shown in the past that Tony Romo can be flustered under pressure, the Giants do it with a dominant front four that continues to get after, hit, and harrass the quarterback.  The only way the 'Hawks, in my mind, can simulate this type of pressure would be through blitzing at or around 50% of the time and that's a risky proposition against a fast, talented offense.  Instead, I think Bradley's scheme needs to be a mixed bag of sorts, with all different fronts and looks in order to confuse Romo.  Press coverage, zone, 4-3 Over, 4-3 Under, some 3-4 looks, and yes, even the Bandit.  Throw it all at Romo and the Cowboys.  Keep them guessing.  Create unforced errors through lack of confidence and hesitation.  I'm confident in the job that Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner can do against Dez Bryant and Kevin Ogletree.  Funny enough, Ogletree is also from Queens, NY just like yours truly and even went to a rival high school (Holy Cross) but I digress.  Trufant should be okay in the slot handling Miles Austin.  Austin is quick, so I expect him to get the best of Tru a few times, but Trufant's experience will give him the upper hand more often then not.

This brings me to the key to this game for the Seahawks in my mind.  Shutting down DeMarco Murray.  As noted above, Murray exploited the Seahawks lack of speed at the linebacker position during the Week 9 tilt last season.  Enter Bobby Wagner.  The Rookie 2nd Rounder out of Utah State has the eye-popping measurables that you'd want in a MLB looking to shut down a runner that likes to get outside of the tackles.  At 6'0 241 pounds, he's got impressive sideline to sideline speed (4.46 Unofficial 40 at his Pro Day), great burst (4.24 short shuttle/7.03 three cone/39 1/2 inch vertical), and is a solid tackler.  The 'Hawks are going to need a big game from Wagner in order to be successful against the 'Boys so look for Wagner to have a "breakthrough" performance.  Another key variable to limiting the run against Dallas is KJ Wright.  While he was already starting when the two teams met last season, there's no denying that Wright has improved leaps and bounds since the two last met.  Wright is long limbed and a reliable, smashmouth run defender.  As well, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kam Chancellor playing up in the box a lot early on to set the tone and snuff out the run.  Stopping the run will be a necessity because Murray and backup Felix Jones have shown to be explosive runners when given the chance to get in to space.  Jones is expected to play this weekend after missing the season opener in New Jersey with a rib injury.

At the end of the day, a lot is being made of DeMarco Murray's stellar performance against the Seahawks last season, and rightfully so.  However, don't be surprised if Marshawn Lynch ends the day as the game's top rusher, as well as the victor. 


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